Market observation the bond market is still the spring city, the three way to configure bonds – Sohu-googims

Market observation: the bond market is still the Spring City three ideas configuration bonds – Sohu financial CITIC Securities: bond market is still spring bond yields still depend on the open market interest rates, and will not follow the MLF interest rate down and continue down. At the same time, on the basic, supported by the policy, the future economic situation is not pessimistic; supply and demand side, treasury bonds, local bonds, special financial debt supply began to peatlands; capital surface, liquidity neutral short-term, long-term return expired. Continue to adhere to the debt related company stock market trend of the city of spring point of view, to maintain the 10 year Treasury yields in the 2.8%-3.4% range fluctuations remain unchanged. Everbright Securities: interest rates deposit down space, the central bank only adjusted the types and use of monetary policy tools, before the economy stabilized, easing is still the main theme. In bond investment, although the impact of more recent time, resulting in fluctuations in the bond market increase, but in the basic sustained support, interest rates exist downward space, especially at the present stage of interest rates appear greater callback. Credit products investment securities (600999, stock bar): the choice of medium and high level of state-owned enterprises in the future surplus industry will appear differentiation increasing situation. To eliminate production capacity is mainly backward production capacity and production capacity, we believe that from the product structure, operating conditions, three dimensions of the region to find the safety margin of excess industrial enterprises. The capacity to go is a long journey, the possibility of a single size is low, but the edge of excess industry security has been gradually clear. Considering the complexity and path of coal, iron and steel industry production capacity to two, still recommended in high level of state-owned enterprises, and focus on organizing mergers may occur, beware of debt writedowns, pay attention to diversify investment risks. Ping An Securities: pay attention to private financing pressure, deleveraging environment, the external financing conditions worsen, weaken the external financing ability of enterprises. First of all, whether debt eventually default depends directly on the corporate cash flow will be maintained, although corporate cash flow depends on the internal and external financing the interaction of the two factors, but from the results, the external financing channels blocked often is the direct reason of substantial breach of the enterprise. Secondly, in the macro environment of deleveraging, the bank lending confidence drops, the credit market is easy to withdraw loans and loans, and the external financing conditions of enterprises deteriorate. Under the pressure of short-term external financing, the "black swan" factor triggers the capital chain rupture easily. We tend to regard the company’s actual controller risk as the last straw to overwhelm the liquidity of the company, and the deep reason is that the short-term external financing pressure caused by the short-term debt increase. The convertible bonds Societe Generale Securities (601377, shares): there are still appropriate game chance despite lower than the shares or convertible bonds have been digested by the part of the pressure value, but the current valuation is still high, but part of the bonds of absolute value rebound, taking into account the potential supply and accelerate the stock market uncertainty, the medium term, the valuation of convertible bonds is 2016 the pressure of the. Of course, in the short run, there is still a chance for the convertible bonds to be appropriately driven by the rise in risk appetite and the rebound in the stock market. Coupon selection, recommend.

市场观察:债市仍是弹簧市 三思路配置转债-搜狐理财   中信证券:债市仍是弹簧市   债券收益率仍取决于公开市场利率,并不会跟随MLF利率下调而继续下行。同时,基本面上,受政策支撑,未来经济形势并不悲观;供需面上,国债、地方债、专项金融债供给开始放量;资金面上,流动性短期中性、长期持续回笼到期。继续坚持债 相关公司股票走势 市弹簧市的观点,维持10年期国债收益率在2.8%-3.4%区间波动的判断不变。   光大证券:利率存下行空间   央行只是调整了货币政策工具的使用种类和使用方式,在经济企稳之前,宽松仍然是主旋律。在债券投资方面,虽然近段时间冲击较多,造成债券市场波动加大,但在基本面的持续支撑下,利率存在下行空间,尤其是在现阶段利率出现较大回调的情况下。   信用产品   招商证券(600999,股吧):优选中高等级国企   未来过剩产业将呈现分化加大的局面。去产能下淘汰的主要是落后产能和停产产能,我们认为要从产品结构、经营状况、所在区域三个维度去寻找过剩产业企业的安全边际。这次去产能是一条漫长的征程,出现一刀切的可能性较低,但是过剩产业安全边际已经慢慢清晰。考虑到煤炭、钢铁两个行业去产能的路径和复杂性,仍然建议优选中高等级国企,并关注兼并筹组,当心可能发生的债务减记,注意分散投资风险。   平安证券:关注民企融资压力   去杠杆宏观环境中,外部融资条件恶化削弱企业外部融资能力。首先,债务是否最终违约直接取决于企业现金流是否可维持,虽然企业现金流取决于企业内部融资和外部融资两方面因素共同作用,但从结果来看,外部融资渠道受阻往往是企业发生实质性违约的直接原因。其次,去杠杆宏观环境中银行放贷信心下降,信贷市场易现抽贷、压贷,企业外部融资条件恶化。企业短期外部融资压力情况下,“黑天鹅”因素易触发资金链断裂。我们倾向于将公司实际控制人风险视为压垮公司流动性周转的最后一根稻草,深层次原因依然在于上述负债短期化带来的短期外部融资压力增大。   可转债   兴业证券(601377,股吧):仍有适当博弈机会   尽管转债涨幅低于正股已经消化了一部分估值压力,但是目前估值仍然偏高,而且部分转债绝对价值有所反弹,考虑到潜在供给加快和股市的不确定性,中期来看,转债估值始终是2016年的压力所在。当然,短期来看,受风险偏好提升以及股市反弹的影响,转债仍有适当博弈的机会。个券选择上,推荐多从转债溢价率较低、正股弹性大、因条款等原因导致的低估、短期政策催化等角度出发。   国信证券(002736,股吧):三大思路配置转债   一是等待确定底的债性品种,债性品种以后仍有机会,不需要着急配置。这个思路的前提是对股市相对悲观,且有较长期的配置资金。二是抓反弹的品种,需要关注股性和流动性情况。抓反弹品种,重点在于考虑平价水平和流动性情况。三是把握个券机会,注重对行业配置和个股的选择。相关的主题文章: