Hengtai Plastic Futures late strong linear supply tight www.70qq.cn

Hengtai Futures: plastic supply tight linear strong late client view the latest market in 1, the release of new capacity in September is slow, no new plant put into operation, the maintenance of existing devices, the overall operating rate is not high, 2 petrochemical enterprises and social inventories are low, based on the price of petrochemical. 3, the recent shipment to Hong Kong, WaiPan prices strong, and spreads upside down, import volume 4, oil pressure is not established at the bottom, naphtha and ethylene prices strong performance, cost effective end support operation strategy based on the above analysis, believe that the market outlook is still rising in linear space, can be used as a multi configuration, specific strategies are as follows: first, the new the release of production capacity is slow, equipment maintenance is still concentrated due to the development of coal to olefin process, this year plans to put into the polyolefin plant capacity is large, but since the beginning of the real input device limit production only Montana coal 300 thousand tons of equipment production, most of the new plant put into operation in September and has no plans to postpone the new plant put into operation, the release of new capacity is relatively slow. Zhongtian co-founder of project for technical reasons to postpone to November. Figure 1: the new device of linear polyethylene production at the same time, in September the domestic maintenance equipment is still relatively concentrated, although Daqing 78 thousand tons of linear production recovery, but the actual increase in supply is limited, the market supply is still tight chart 2:LLDPE maintenance device two, petrochemical storage and social inventory are relatively low in unit overhaul concentrated case the total inventory of petrochemical enterprises and domestic social inventory is still in the lower position, under this condition, the petrochemical enterprises to ex factory price, the cost of supporting the market structure. Figure 3 LLDPE Petrochemical stocks and total social inventory data source: WWW, Hengtai Futures Institute three, inside and outside spreads upside down, import volume pressure is not linear spread inside and outside most of the time in the inside and outside the state upside down, early because of American ocean cargo to the port, the spread has been improved, but with this part of the supply to be digested, and the outer disk price performance strong, spread inside and outside again into the post import volume upside down, the pressure is not. Figure 4 LLDPE import duty paid price and the market price data source: wind, Hengtai Futures Institute four, the cost is still supported by crude oil, OPEC and Russia frequent sound, expressed their willingness to reach a frozen production agreement. Although the market does not fully agree, but from the perspective of supply and demand, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other oil producing countries continue to increase in the limited space, the demand side of China monthly imports remained at more than 30 million tons, still in India vigorously hunters, the consumption growth rate of more than 8%, the overall supply of crude oil in the reduction of excess capacity. Even if the frozen production meeting broke again, the price of oil continued to fall even lower than the probability of $40. Naphtha and ethylene, as crude oil firm, equally strong performance, although the annual 1 million 800 thousand tons of ethylene plant put into operation, or to increase the pressure on ethylene supply side, and recently there was no apparent volume, the impact is relatively limited, the cost of LLDPE end of the support is still valid. Figure 4 ethylene and stone.相关的主题文章: