BOC the decline in steel prices gradually bifocus rangebound-sexinse

BOC: the decline in steel prices gradually bifocus rangebound Abstract: the influence of the black line is relatively weak in the supply and demand than expected, fell again and again. But in the medium term, due to interruption of supply, rebar futures in the 2200-2500 range of shocks. The current thread near the bottom of the range of prices, prices rose higher probability. Coking coal coke stronger than the fundamentals of the thread, the short-term price also showed a range of shocks. Investment advice: in the "demand is weaker than expected" and "supply side when there is an interruption" under the influence of two factors, the operating range of coke price is 1100-1200, coking coal price range is 810-910. It is therefore recommended 1701 coking coal contract close to the beginning of the trial of a single empty, the first target bit of 850, the target of second bit 810, 910. Prices rose to 910 near the start stop. Risk warning: the Fed did not raise interest rates in September; the real estate market regulation has not yet arrived; coking coal market continued tight supply constraints. The decline in steel prices gradually, bifocal rangebound black lines in the impact of supply and demand relatively weak than expected, fell again and again. But in the medium term, due to interruption of supply, rebar futures in the 2200-2500 range of shocks. Double focus affected by the steel price is obvious, the short term showed a range of shocks. A steel mill, the decline in profitability, inventory is still low with the decline in steel prices, steel earnings deteriorated by last week’s profit of about 150 yuan per ton per ton 50 yuan profit decline. Although the profit and loss situation will not make steel production, but will make the recovery rate of production decline. At the same time, we can see the CISA’s August new steel inventories continued to decline in July, from 13 million 530 thousand tons to 13 million 30 thousand tons. Although the stock traders slowly increased, but the total steel inventory is still low. Figure 1: steel stocks source: Mysteel two, Bank of China International Futures spot continued premium for the main contract, futures fell space is limited to recent rebar futures and spot market fell, the futures market fell more than the stock market, so the main contract 1701 backwardation rose by about -100 at the end of August rose to about the present 80. Next, the futures market is greatly affected by the stock market, if the stock market steady, the futures market fell sharply difficult. Also from a technical point of view, the price of the main contract is 1701 thread rangebound market, shock interval between 2200-2500, the current market price is close to the bottom of the range of short-term, further down the little space. Figure 2: backwardation (right) and the thread of the spot price (left) source: Mysteel Bank of China International Futures three, coke futures spot strong rangebound in 1100-1200 due to the recent rapid decline in the futures market, the market spread to the maximum value of coke. You can see from Figure 2, a coke basis stock rose to 280, the two metallurgical coke basis rose to 260, reached 20.相关的主题文章: